Studies commissioned by the Fiscal Advisory Council on specific fiscal policy topics of relevance for economic policymaking are published by members of theOffice of the Fiscal Advisory Council in their own name and on their own behalf. These commissioned studies are presented for discussion to the Fiscal Advisory Council. The Fiscal Advisory Council includes agreed results and findings in its fiscal policy recommendations.
Evaluation of economic forecasts for Austria – An update for the years 2005 to 2020
Schuster – December 2021
Year of publication: 2021
The microsimulation model of the office of the Fiscal Advisory Council (FISKSIM): interaction effects of selected transfers in Austria
Bachleitner, Maidorn – October 2019
Year of publication: 2019
Fiscal multipliers in Austria
Holler, Schuster – October 2019
Year of publication: 2019
Evaluation of economic forecasts for Austria for the years 2005 to 2017
Schuster – October 2018
This study, commissioned by the Austrian Fiscal Advisory Council, evaluates the macroeconomic forecasts of the Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO) for the years 2005 to 2017 that served as inputs for the official government budget forecasts by the Austrian Federal Ministry of Finance (MOF), as well as the MOF’s budget forecasts. The March and September forecasts of WIFO for the current and next year are benchmarked against other national (IHS, OeNB) and international institutions’ (European Commission, IMF, OECD) projections for 13 selected variables based on different forecast error measures and statistical testing. The same is done for the MOF’s general government budget projections. Forecast errors are computed using initial realisations. This study provides an ex-post forecast evaluation of the official budget forecast as well as the underlying macroeconomic projections in line with Council Directive 2011/85/EU (Article 4, Paragraph 6), which calls for regular independent assessments of Member States’ forecasts.
Year of publication: 2018
Fiscal forecasting performance of the Austrian Fiscal Advisory Council
Hauth, Holler, Schuster – August 2018
This paper provides information on the fiscal forecasting performance of the Austrian finance ministry, the European Commission and the Austrian Fiscal Advisory Council with regard to Austria’s general government budgets (including selected economic indicators), on the varying predictability of compliance with, or forecast quality of, the multidimensional EU-wide fiscal rules of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) as well as an assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of the Fiscal Advisory Council’s forecasting methods.
Year of publication: 2018
Subsidies in Austria: Definitions, spending levels and suggestions for improving efficiency
Grossmann – August 2018
Year of publication: 2018
Growth projections for public spending on long-term care
Grossmann, Schuster – July 2017
The increasing demand for formal long-term care (LTC) services comes along with higher financial burden for general government. The article informs about the mid- and long-term developments of LTC-costs and evaluates a cost containment path – agreed between the federal, regional and local levels of government – to limit spending on LTC for the elderly. When breaking down the yearly public LTC cost growth demography and unit costs of in-kind services (resp. wage costs) are the most important contributors. Our calculated individual projection scenarios differ in their assumptions concerning mortality and the rising share of formal LTC as well as the indexation of unit costs. Our results show a boost of general government net spending on LTC to keep rising, from 1.2% of GDP (2016) to GDP ratios ranging from 1.4% to 1.7% (by 2030) or from 1.9% to as much as 3.4% (by 2060). Capping the increase in gross spending at the regional and local government level in the years 2017 to 2021 a cost containment path was agreed between the federal, regional and local levels of government for spending on LTC for the elderly. However, the projected cost paths would exceed the cost containment targets by amounts up to EUR 0.6 bn by 2021. With a view to sustaining budget funding for health care, long-term care and social care in Austria the earmarked subsidies from the LTC fund and supplemental annual funding for regional and local government budgets for inflation by EUR 300 million were agreed at the same time. Nevertheless, the funding share for LTC of the regional and local governments will rise.
Year of publication: 2017
Long-run fiscal consequences of refugee migration for Austria 2015 to 2019 (German version)
Holler, Schuster – October 2016
Year of publication: 2016
Complexity of EU fiscal rule framework and its potential application to governmental subsectors in Austria (German version)
Grossmann, Hauth, Maidorn – Juni 2016
Over the last few years, budgetary surveillance at the EU level has been both deepened and made more flexible. The EU’s current fiscal framework leaves much less scope for national fiscal policies than in the beginning of EMU; in addition, national fiscal institutions – such as the Austrian Fiscal Advisory Council – were established to help monitor compliance with EU fiscal rules. At the same time, new provisions were implemented to ensure that the economic environment in the Member States as well as specific developments with an impact on national budgets can be taken properly into account. However, these measures have not put an end to critical discussions of the EU’s fiscal framework. This study discusses the strengths and weaknesses of the current fiscal framework from an operative perspective, highlighting points of criticism as well as proposals for reform.
In compliance with its international obligations under the European fiscal compact, Austria adopted the Austrian Stability Pact in 2012. Based on the EU’s fiscal rules, this pact established, above all, numeric targets for the different levels of government – the federal government, the individual provinces as well as the municipalities in each province – and an automatic correction mechanism to be triggered in case targets are not met. Austria’s national fiscal rules (i.e. nominal budget rule, structural budget rules, spending rule, debt rule, etc.) are scheduled to be fully implemented from 2017 onward. Because of the regionalization of the multidimensional fiscal rule framework in Austria, we are increasingly observing a massive tradeoff between simple rules that allow for greater control and complex rules that allow for more flexibility. This contribution identifies problems in implementing the fiscal compact in Austria and presents alternative options for designing regional fiscal rules that avoid large administrative burdens at the subsectoral level without jeopardizing the consolidation path agreed in the 2012 Austrian Stability Pact. Regional fiscal rules that are as simple as possible do not contradict EU rules as long as they ensure Austria’s overall compliance with the national EU rules.
Year of publication: 2016
Government Guarantees for Nonpublic Entities in Austria – How Effective Are the New Guarantee Ceilings in Limiting Guarantee Risk?
Hauth, Grossmann – May 2013
Year of publication: 2013
Spin-offs of Austrian municipalities: extent, range of services and risk potentials (results as of the end of 2010)
Hauth, Grossmann – April 2012
Year of publication: 2012
Budgetary development of Austrian provinces in 2009 and outlook (German version)
Hauth, Grossmann – März 2011
Year of publication: 2011
The Mandate and Functions of the OeNB: Providing Assistance for the Government Debt Committee
Grossmann – Lecture at the Joint Vienna Institute – January 2011
Year of publication: 2011
Infrastructure investments in Austria: economic relevance, investment volumes, and the role of the public sector
Hauth, Grossmann – May 2010
Year of publication: 2010
Risk management for Austrian municipalities (German version)
Hauth, Grossmann – April 2009
Year of publication: 2009
Rules and applications of the Austrian provinces´ budget framework: a critical analysis (German version)
Hauth – March 2009
Year of publication: 2009
Structure sustainability and management of Austria´s public debt (German version)
Grossmann, Hauth, Wimmer – March 2008
Year of publication: 2008
Fiscal policy of the Austrian provinces in the light of Maastricht rules (German version)
Grossmann, Hauth – März 2006
Year of publication: 2006
The Swiss Debt Brake: An Implementation Proposal for Austria
Brandner, Frisch, Grossmann, Hauth – Austrian Economic Chambers, Wirtschaftspolitische Blätter, Paper No. 1/2006, Vienna
Year of publication: 2006
Public employment dynamics in Austria 1997–2003 (German version)
Grossmann, Hauth – July 2005
Year of publication: 2005
An Austrian debt break (German version)
Brandner, Frisch, Grossmann, Hauth – February 2005
Year of publication: 2005
The Government Debt Committee and its Recommendations in the 1990s
Lehner – 2002
Year of publication: 2002
Foreign currency denominated federal debt / the role of the Austrian Postal Savings Bank (role of the Government Debt Committee) in Austria´s public debt management (German version)
Brandner, Hauth – P.S.K., Schriftenreihe Volkswirtschaft, Heft 13, 1996
Year of publication: 1996
